Rampant Speculation
Unless you’ve been immune to the Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field for the last ten years or so (and given that you’re reading this, it’s safe to assume that you’re not immune), you are well aware that speculation has been ramping up lately of a new Apple product in the guise of a tablet.
Let’s get right down to it.
This is what we know almost for certain: there will be a new Apple product that has been hyped for nearly a decade; it will likely be announced in late January; it will feature multi-touch. That’s it. Sound familiar? That’s what we knew for certain in January 2007, just before Steve Jobs pulled the iPhone from his pocket. Everyone and their dog is speculating about the tablet based on perceptions of existing products, the same way they did with the iPhone. I’ve read things like, “iPhone on steroids,” and “a touchscreen MacBook.” One would think they would have learned from their mistakes. I’m going to make one bold prediction that very few have been wise enough to see:
The tablet will be unlike any other product in the marketplace today, whether from Apple or any other manufacturer.
Sure, it will share some common features with existing products. It will certainly have multi-touch, which a number of products currently have. It’s likely to be built with unibody construction, as MacBooks are. But as usual with Apple, it won’t be the features that set it apart; it will be the experience.
Software
To me, the whole key to this product is the software. Apple is, for all intents and purposes, a software company. It makes hardware to support its software. There is much speculation about what operating system a tablet might use, and whether or not current iPhone apps will work with it. My thought is that it will be a variation of OS X, but branded differently and optimized for a touch screen of the size a tablet-type computer would have. I also believe that unlike the iPhone, it will feature file system access, but it won’t use the Finder. Rather, I think it will be a variation of the Simple Finder, with unique Stacks, QuickLook, and Dashboard implementation. Because of that, I don’t expect iPhone developers to be able to simply change the resolution of their apps and expect it to work. The development process will be much closer to a standard Mac application, but with multi-touch controls on top of it.
There are other OS-related predictions I have, but they’re a complete shot in the dark. Multitasking is practically a given as far as I’m concerned, but I don’t anticipate a direct port of the OS X Dock. Rather, it will be a far simpler Dock, a la iPhone, but with the ability to leave applications running with indicators, a la the OS X Dock. Switching applications will use a four-finger swipe, just like on MacBooks. I also anticipate a nearly direct lift of other gestures from the MacBook trackpads, even perhaps utilizing them for Exposé, if implemented, as well. Another way-out-there idea I’ve been kicking around is a file system that uses Stacks, but with multi-touch in a system I’m calling Piles. It would work very similarly to the photo organization system developed by Jefferson Han at NYU, but would use QuickLook technology to preview the file contents rather than using icons. As a caveat, I will say that this sounds too much like a flying car prediction to actually be true. But if it does turn out to be true, man will I be happy.
The one thing nobody has seemed to mention is “The Killer App”, that one piece of software that becomes the iconic example of the platform. For the iPhone, it was supposed to be the Phone app, but that app is so good that nobody ever notices it; it lacks the “wow”. To the same end, Apple will claim that this device’s killer app will be something that will turn out to be fairly mundane, but still used every day with little to no fanfare, like the rumored media reader. However, I imagine the real killer app will be a suite of apps, which I’ll call iLife Touch. (I should state at this point that I expect Apple to position this tablet the very same way it did the MacBook Air: a secondary computing device that is a companion to a desktop system, but that can work as a standalone system in a pinch.) Apps like iPhoto and iMovie lend themselves to a large multi-touch surface. We have a small taste of that with certain apps for the iPhone with limited photo and video editing capabilities, but the small screen of the iPhone makes full-fledged editing nigh impossible.
Hardware
Here’s the rub: specifications don’t matter. Don’t expect Apple to announce the processor, RAM, video card, front-side bus speed, or anything like that. What matters for this device is interface and connectivity. As I’ve said, the touch screen is a given. Expect it to be 10.1”, matching the standard accepted rumor. Connectivity, however, is a subject of great debate inside my head. What I know for certain is it will rely on WiFi for much of the connectivity, and that Bluetooth will be standard for using an optional keyboard for text entry when necessary (I’m of the school of thought that a device like this doesn’t necessarily need much text input, and may in fact rely heavily upon handwriting recognition). What I’m torn about is whether or not Apple will allow another company to control wireless connectivity, considering the disaster that has been its relationship with AT&T. My gut says that Apple may play a strong hand against AT&T and have optional wireless access via Verizon’s network, perhaps even introducing it with a 4G (LTE) chip. But I have a very strong feeling that even if it does go with wireless access, it will be entirely optional. Due to accounting rules, I would expect two models, a la iPhone and iPod touch, but with no differing specifications other than the wireless connectivity, and using the same name.
Name & Branding
I’m throwing this in here because I take issue with the Apple rumors industry’s obsession with product names, but really, who cares? iPod is a stupid name for a product, and look what it’s accomplished. iSlate is a terrible name as well, so I imagine that it’s a decoy. It worked pretty well, considering that Steve Ballmer himself has already started calling tablet PCs “slates”. But just for shits and giggles, I’ll predict that it will be called “MacPad”. I have no reasoning for it, and put no stock into my guess, other than that I think they’ll try to align the device more with the Mac lineup than the iPhone lineup. But again, the name doesn’t matter. The real meat is in the branding and marketing. It’s the Reality Distortion Field after all, so expect the usual media hoopla and fanfare, aka free advertising. Chiat/Day will throw out a series of cheeky television ads akin to the original iPhone ads, simply showcasing what the device does and how it does it. “This is how you switch apps. And this is how you edit a movie.” Et cetera.
Miscellaneous
Cheap enough for Apple fans to buy it from the online Apple Store without even seeing it in person, but expensive enough for people who don’t “get it” to complain about how expensive Apple products are and how Product X has better specs for half the price. Won’t rely on iTunes for updates, but will leverage the App Store model for software distribution. Apple likes the App Store too much to forego that business model for a new semi-mobile device. It also allows them to leave off any sort of optical drive. Media syncing will be included, a la Apple TV, but perhaps will work remotely rather than transferring everything over. No Flash. Might include some sort of docking system so it can be used as a low-powered desktop, but don’t count on it. I expect it to look much like a miniaturized aluminum iMac sans stand, but much thinner and with slightly more rounded edges, and perhaps edge-to-edge glass with no aluminum of the front surface. I expect as few moving parts as possible, so things like an integrated keyboard, stand, or even buttons of any kind other than a power button are unlikely. It will seem impossibly thin, and feel somewhat fragile as a result. I’ll buy one.
So there are my predictions. Nothing too far-fetched, but there are still a lot of things I think the pundits are missing. We’ll see who’s right, but I have a pretty good feeling about this one.
One More Thing
Three words: New Cinema Displays. This might be one of those rumors.
The tablet will be unlike any other product in the marketplace today, whether from Apple or any other manufacturer.
